What happens next for Boris?

What happens next? The Surrender Act 2019 is law, the Advocate General has assured the Court of Session that the Government will comply, but the Cabinet have reasserted that no extension will be made to Brexit Day. The clock is ticking, the fireworks are almost in the shops, and the Parliamentary wolves are at the heels. The hard Remainders know it is their last moment or hope, and Labour know that this is the moment at which Boris can be broken, and if the Boris Bubble bursts, they are back in the game. You see, as I have observed before, it is not really about Europe.

Now Angela Merkel has lobbed her parting shot – she is retiring soon and does not have to take responsibility any more. That leaves innumerable questions, but we can ask:

  • Will Boris sign and send the extension letter which the Abject Prostration Before Brussels Act prescribes?
  • How will he send it (if not by carrier pigeon, which has been ruled out)?
  • Is there a loophole?
  • If the letter is sent, and reaches Brussels, how does Boris stop the Commission from seizing on it and forcing an extension?
  • Will the Commission or one of the remaining member states veto an extension?
  • Is the Commission’s carefully worded response a measured tactic, or genuine?
  • Is Angela Merkel’s latest statement a negotiating tactic or a killing stroke to the deal, and is she in charge anyway?
  • How do we read Donald Tusk’s rebuke to the German, when he has previously been negative towards London?
  • Can Jean-Claude Juncker in his last days in office sign the deal on his personal authority as a treaty on behalf of the Commission, bypassing objections from member states?
  • Or can Donald Tusk sign for the Council?
  • How will the landscape change when the new Commission gathers on 1 November 2019 (if it matters by then)?
  • In Parliament, will any of the Blue Rebels be won over at the last minute?
  • If a deal is agreed, will Parliament approve it this time, given that most of the Blue Rebels say they are in favour of Brexit with a deal, and voted for the May deal?
  • If the United Kingdom crashes out dealless, will Boris sign a post-completion agreement, bypassing Section 13?
  • Will Stormont meet, and what will they do?
  • How many more vain legal challenges will Jolyon Maugham be paid to run in the meantime?
  • How many other political parties will Heidi Allen join before the parliamentary session is over?

The answer to all these question is the same: I don’t know – why ask me?

See also:

Books

Margaret Thatcher

Author: AlexanderTheHog

A humble scribbler who out of my lean and low ability will lend something to Master Hobbes

2 thoughts on “What happens next for Boris?”

  1. That snippet from Cummins (?) in the Spectator was intriguing. It seems like what they might do is
    a) send the letter (I suspect the PM will delegate to a Senior Civil Servant on his behalf) but also
    b) make it clear that this is the will of Parliament and the Government is against it and will be challenging the Law in Court
    c) one of the arguments against will be that it required Queen's consent if for no other reason than it will cost a billion a month and such expenditures require Queen's consent, therefore the Government's, which it did not achieve despite passing in the Commons vote-wise
    d) if the Opposition finds a way to turf BJ out and put in a new govt, then the Tories (minus the Rebels) can make a vigorous, defiantly cheerful stand as pro-Democracy, pro-Brexit, anti-Brussels, anti-Corbyn, anti-Remoaner/Prevaricator/Dither&Delay and they will sweep the board
    e) they will let Farage ravage the North where they don't have much of a chance
    f) and let him have a go at Independent Chief Prevaricator and Underminer Hammond
    g) if there is no election, they will fight any new Referendum taking place in the interim on the same basis – and win on the promise of getting out from under the jackboot of Brussels once and for all.
    h) then they can repeal the FTPA and clarify that prorogation is not under any external Court's jurisdiction.

    It's all over bar the verbiage.
    But there will be much more verbiage before it's over.

  2. PS I forgot to write re b) that this means that the Government will not be saying any resultant agreement or Treaty, including any extension agreement, which only the Government can do, not Parliament. (At least that's what I think is the case!)

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